Colorado State Researcher Releases Forecast For White Christmas Thursday, December 11, 1997 FORT COLLINS--Most of Colorado hasn't seen fresh snow on Christmas for 9 years, but El Nino improves this year's chance for a white Christmas, according to a holiday weather forecast compiled by a researcher at Colorado State University. Nolan Doesken, assistant state climatologist at the Colorado Climate Center and research associate in Colorado State's department of atmospheric science, based his information on weather records dating back to 1949. Doesken said he was surprised to find Christmas snow was more common in the 12 years since 1949 when El Nino was the most active. "Fresh snow on Christmas in Colorado is surprisingly rare, except in the high country," Doesken said. "But in El Nino years, there is a distinctly higher likelihood of snow at Chrismas for the Front Range and Eastern Plains. East of the mountains there is an average probability range of 8 to 20 percent, and this approximately doubles in El Nino years. However, in the mountains, chances for snow are not significantly improved." Last year was the 9th consecutive year without fresh snow on Christmas on the Front Range and Eastern Plains. The last Christmas snow for most of the state was in 1987, which was also a strong El Nino year. However, weaker El Ninos in the early 1990s did not yield snow on Christmas, Doesken said. Doesken compiled a chart showing the probability of snow on the ground and fresh snow for Dec. 24 and 25 for 19 locations. The chart is based on a long-term history of the areas under all conditions. According to Doesken's forecast, the most likely places to have at least one inch of snow on the ground for Christmas are Colorado's northern and central mountains. The least likely areas to receive Christmas snowfall in Colorado are Salida, Colorado Springs and Pueblo. Following is a chart of white Christmas probabilities for 19 Colorado cities. White Christmas Probabilities (based on 1949-1996 weather data) Chances of Having: Location => 1" snow => 0.5" fresh snowfall on ground on Dec. 24 or 25 Alamosa 49% 11% Aspen 99% 41% Berthoud Pass 100% 68% Boulder 40% 21% Colorado Springs 24% 8% Denver 42% 18% Dillon 94% 29% Durango 63% 22% Estes Park 52% 16% Fort Collins 41% 14% Grand Junction 31% 10% Greeley 29% 12% Lamar 26% 13% Pueblo 20% 10% Salida 23% 8% Sedgwick 35% 15% Steamboat Springs 96% 44% Telluride 93% 39% Trinidad 27% 17% *Prepared by Colorado Climate Center, department of atmospheric sciences, Colorado State University. Return to the Colorado State University News page. This page © 1997-1998 World Wide Express, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Many news stories on RamLine.com come from the Colorado State University Public Relations Office. You can get copies of the news releases directly by filling out this form.